The number of SVOD (subscription video on demand) homes is forecast to reach 428 million across 200 countries by 2021, up from 177 million in 2015 and an expected 248 million by end-2016. North America supplies most of these subscribers at present, but Asia-Pacific will become the top region by 2019, according to the Digital TV Research. This comes despite Netflix being unlikely to secure direct access in China and only making a limited impact in other major population centers such as India and Indonesia. There are some large SVOD platforms in Asia-Pacific that have been active for some time, especially via mobile phones.
With127 million subscribers by 2021, US will remain the SVOD market leader by some distance, although China (74 million in 2021 – up by 34 million in 2016) will record strong growth to close the gap.
Netflix will have almost 118 million paying subs by 2021 – or 27.5 percent of the global total. Although the number of international subscribers will overtake its US ones in 2018, the US will still contribute 44 percent of its subs by 2021. Subscription revenues for Netflix will double from USD 6.37 billion in 2015 to USD 13.14 billion in 2021. Despite growth elsewhere, North America will still contribute 52 percent of its total in 2021.
Netflix has distribution partnerships with 79 pay-TV, telco or mobile operators across 44 countries. These partnerships include multinational deals with Liberty Global, Millicom/Tigo, and Telia. Global SVOD revenues will reach USD 32.18 billion in 2021 – 18 times the USD 1.74 billion recorded in 2010 and up by USD20 billion on the USD 12.20 billion recorded in 2015. Revenues will grow by USD 5 billion in 2016 alone to take the total to USD 17.46 billion.