Global satellite surge intensifies competition for low-orbit broadband

The City of Shanghai entered the low-orbit broadband satellite market. Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST) launched 18 satellites in August and a second batch of 18 satellites in October. The satellites are being branded as Qianfan, or ‘Thousand Sails.’

SSST satellites are being launched by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) using the Long March 6A rocket. SSST plans to launch 108 total satellites this year and 648 satellites by the end of 2025, which are part of a first constellation of 1,296 satellites. Future launches are expected to carry from 36 to 54 satellites. The completed network will consist of 14,000 satellites, with ultimate plans of perhaps 30,000 satellites by sometime in the 2030s.

The venture is being backed by the municipal government of Shanghai, which hopes to foster a commercial space industry.

This is not the only Chinese satellite venture. The China Satellite Network group, established in 2021, plans to launch a constellation of 13,000 satellites, with the first launch expected soon. This venture has the backing of the Chinese government. The government has been working on a new generation of reusable medium-lift rockets, which it expects to be ready by 2025. The first launchpad has already been constructed on Hainan Island. The government’s goal is to reach 100 rocket launches per year.

China also recently launched ten satellites for Geely Group Automotive. These satellites are the first part of a constellation that will be used to build a communications network for autonomous vehicles.

OneWeb is still putting satellites in orbit. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine War forced the company to stop using Russian Soyuz launches, and the company is now using its competitor, SpaceX, to get into orbit. OneWeb currently has 660 satellites in orbit, which meets its initial goal announced years ago. At this point, One Web is offering satellite services to governments and selling excess broadband capacity to residential satellite providers like Hughesnet, Viasat, and Starlink. One Web’s advantage is the use of a polar orbit that allows it to reach locations in the far north.

Starlink has continued to launch satellites and had over 30 launches this year. At the end of September, the company launched 6,426 satellites, with 6,371 that are functional. The company still has plans for reaching a goal of 12,000 satellites in its initial constellation and 30,000 as a long-term plan.

Project Kuiper, backed by Jeff Bezos, launched two test satellites in 2023, and the company says it still has plans to launch the first constellation of 3,200 satellites.

According to GSA, which tracks the satellite industry, 34 countries are either planning, evaluating, or testing broadband satellites. There have already been satellites launched by UK, Mexico, Japan, Papua New Guinea, the United Arab Emirates, and Timor-Leste.

The skies are clearly going to be filled with satellites in a few years. It’s not hard to imagine 100,000 broadband satellites in orbit in a decade or so. One has to wonder what this will mean in terms of price competition. Starlink has one of the highest broadband prices in the U.S. Companies like SSST and Project Kuiper are likely to be serious long-term competitors, which will likely eventually bring prices down.