Over 480 orbital launches, 43,000 satellites expected by 2032

The space industry is transforming rapidly as new reusable rockets and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mega-constellations (1000+ satellites) enter the commercial space market. These LEO systems are quickly becoming the mainstay satellite option for their ability to support low-latency and high throughput network applications and extend terrestrial network coverage. As of 2024, there are over 14,000 satellites in orbit, with more than 10,400 actively functioning. Of these active satellites, over 93% are in LEO. The rise of the mega-constellations from the United States, China, and Europe have become significant drivers in the expansion of satellite connectivity for the global telecommunications sector, which, according to a new report from global technology intelligence firm ABI Research, will culminate in an annual orbital launch cadence of over 480 launches to support over 43,000 active satellites in orbit by 2032.

“Satellite networks are gaining much more attention in recent times, and their deployment to support terrestrial networks looking to extend past their zones of coverage and help bridge the digital divide in emerging regions is critical,” says Andrew Cavalier, Space Tech Senior Analyst at ABI Research.

SpaceX and its Starlink network have deployed more than 6,791 satellites in LEO, roughly 300 more expected by the end of 2024. It is the largest mega-constellation, followed by Eutelsat Oneweb and emerging LEO operators such as Amazon Project Kuiper and Telesat Lightspeed. China is quickly on the rise as a new space tech superpower, with the announcement and launch of several LEO mega-constellations by Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST)/ Spacesail (14,000 satellites), Shanghai Lanjian Hongqing Technology (10,000 satellites), and China Satellite Network Group Ltd. (Guowang – 13,000 satellites).

“The market is seeing an increased focus on deployments in LEO particularly for communications and emerging markets. While satellites with communication payloads will continue to be dominant in satellite networks up to 2032 (at 88% of the market), Earth Observation (EO) satellites, signals intelligence, and technology & training satellites are expected to grow significantly throughout the forecast period (at an average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)) of 15%, driven by demand for greater Earth and space situational awareness and synergies with Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Machine Learning (ML) machine vision. Therefore, we anticipate that satellite design will continue to support more edge computing, software-defined, and regenerative architectures as customers seek a total space solution that can handle more diverse and complex applications,” Cavalier explains.

The market is evolving quickly, and many satellite operators are beginning to realize the benefit of vertically integrated business models. “Growing mega-constellation leaders SpaceX and Amazon have proven that some critical aspects for success are not only manufacturing and operating their satellites and leveraging direct-to-customer (D2C) business models which lower barriers for access. It will be crucial to observe how these players and the market continue to innovate, particularly with the rise of emerging Chinese mega-constellations. Lessons from adjacent markets—such as terrestrial networks, automotive, and consumer electronics, could offer valuable insights. The entry of these new, potentially lower-cost competitors will likely drive industry transformation and increased consolidation,” Cavalier concludes. ABI Research