Bharti Airtel to lead subscriber growth in Q3FY25

After a brief impact of SIM consolidation, subscribers are likely to grow again from Q3FY25, according to ICICI Securities (ISec) in their telecom report. Bharti Airtel is projected to benefit the most, with subscriber additions estimated at around 5 million, while Reliance Jio’s subscriber additions are estimated at 3 million. Meanwhile, Vodafone Idea (Vi) may lose up to 4 million subscribers, the report said.

“Subs base that dipped in Q2FY25 on SIM consolidation, may resume growing. Airtel’s 4G/5G net add should remain stable at 6mn; Vi’s 4G subs may dip by 1mn, which should grow from Q4FY25E on network expansion benefits,” said the report.

ARPU to grow QoQ on the back of tariff hike but with lower intensity
Stating that the residual ARPU benefits from teclos’ earlier tariff hikes will continue in Q3FY25, ISec estimated Airtel’s ARPU to grow 5 per cent QoQ/17.7 per cent YoY to ₹245. In terms of mobile services revenue growth, Airtel is estimated to increase 5.3 per cent QoQ, partly due to Indus Towers’ complete consolidation, changing company status from associate to subsidiary.

Jio’s ARPU may jump 3.8 per cent QoQ/11.5 per cent YoY to ₹203. Commenting on the comparatively lower growth, the report said, “Optically, growth may appear lower vs Airtel, as Jio has a higher proportion of long validity subs; hence, tariff hike translation is staggered over three quarters.”

Vi’s ARPU is expected to rise 3 per cent QoQ/10.8 per cent YoY to ₹161 but revenue to grow 1 per cent QoQ/3.5 per cent YoY to ₹110 billion due to subs losses. The report also expects a dip in 4G subs, as network rollout started from November 2024. The Hindu BusinessLine