Concentric Simulates TV Industry, Revealing OTT Takeover Will Be Slower Than Expected

Concentric, a simulation software company, announced the release of “The Future of Streaming Video,” a new report that uncovers how the TV industry will evolve during the rise of over-the-top (OTT) providers. The report forecasts that consumers aren’t ready to cut the cord and the bundling of OTT with other services will continue to dominate in terms of market share. Specifically, subscriptions to OTT and broadcast will grow by 56 percent by 2024 – beating out the subscriber growth of OTT alone, which is forecasted to grow by 17%.

While cord cutting has increasingly pulled subscribers away from cable providers since 2013—even doubling in 2016 and 2017—traditional offerings like cable and broadcast aren’t going away any time soon. Contrary to popular belief, Concentric’s market simulation forecasts that widespread cord cutting will only take place if OTT providers successfully integrate live content, a move that would result in 1 in 4 people cutting the cord by 2024.

“The way we consume content is changing,” said Dejan Duzevik, Chief Product Officer and Solution Architect for Media & Entertainment at Concentric. “OTT providers like Netflix, Amazon and Hulu are disrupting the space, generating buzz about the death of traditional models like cable and broadcast. But consumers won’t be cutting the cord as soon as we might think. Concentric’s TV industry simulation forecasts that OTT subscriptions will continue to grow, but cable is here to stay—for now. Instead, we will see major changes across providers as cable, broadcast, OTT and satellite evolve to meet consumer demands.”

The bundling of OTT with linear alternatives including cable, broadcast, satellite and premium will possess the highest market share by 2024. Concentric’s report reveals that bundling will continue to dominate because no single provider has successfully delivered the optimal customer experience. According to the report, price is the number one subscription driver, followed by variety of content including access to live programming and user experience.

Key findings from the report include:

OTT will need to tackle live content

Concentric’s simulation forecasts OTT will continue to grow over the next five years, increasing subscribers by 17 percent to more than 15 million cordless users by 2024. Meanwhile, OTT bundled with other content options (such as cable or broadcast) is forecasted to grow 10 percent by 2024.

By adding live content, streaming-only subscriptions could grow by an additional 87 percent in the event of an improvement in news, sports and another live programming. In fact, if OTT-only options integrate live content, 1 in 4 people will cut the cord by 2024.

Cable Continues to Dominate Marketshare

Cable companies continue to dominate when it comes to nearly all market drivers. This group controls the majority of the market—with over 50 million subscribers versus OTT’s 16 million—and the simulation shows cable will continue to do so for the next five years. However, cable will see a decline of 2 percent by 2024 if changes aren’t made to their current business model.

If cable providers were to offer more flexible pricing options set equal to streaming alternatives, subscribership would be forecasted to grow 37 percent by 2024. Furthermore, cable companies stand to grow subscribership by an additional 6 percent if they improve the variety of their content.

Satellite to implement strategic changes

Satellite is on the decline, expected to lose 8 percent of its 18.8 million subscribers by 2024. While satellite won’t be obsolete in the next five years (the service is still prevalent in rural areas), growth is unlikely with the advent of 5G.

“OTT is growing and bolstering the success of the other services it’s bundled with,” said Duzevik. “However, the reality is not nearly as bleak for cable companies as recent headlines might suggest. Traditional providers are already drawing subscribers with their own OTT offerings. There’s an opportunity for all providers in the space.”

Concentric’s Future of Streaming Video report uncovers results from the company’s recent simulation of the TV industry in the United States. Powered by Concentric’s advanced analytics software, the report predicts subscriber growth for OTT, cable, premium cable, satellite and broadcast leveraging AI and behavioural science to forecast the outcome of various industry decisions. ―BCS Bureau