Drones to dominate 32% of market by 2030

The drone economy is set to soar, with unprecedented growth on the horizon. According to global intelligence firm ABI Research, civil and commercial applications of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS), aka drones, will expand dramatically, rising from just 8% to an impressive 32% of the total market by 2030. In this timeframe, annual drone shipments will more than double from 1.5 million units in 2024 to 3.32 million, fueling an ecosystem poised to quadruple in value. By the decade’s end, the sector will generate US$123 billion in annual revenue, marking a transformative shift in the commercial and civil drone landscape.

George Chowdhury, Robotics Industry Analyst at ABI Research, explains that easing regulation and autonomy will be the key drivers of growth. “The ability to safely fly drones in built-up areas and over long distances Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) will unlock the real value proposition of drones. sUAS can potentially revolutionize many industries, notably last mile delivery and agriculture, where the advantage of low-cost drones is second to none.”

The commercial drone market is rapidly expanding, with companies like Gather AI making strides in warehouse automation while Flyability and Percepto enhance inspection efficiency across industries. In agriculture and real estate, service providers such as Sentera and Skywash leverage drone technology to unlock new value. However, the largest growth area for sUAS will be last-mile delivery. ABI Research projects that revenue from this segment will soar from US$800 million to US$12.4 billion by 2030, achieving an impressive 50.2% compound annual growth rate. Leading the charge in this transformative space are Zipline, Google’s Wing, and Amazon’s Prime Air, each poised to capture significant market share in the delivery vertical.

Attachment rates for critical hardware advantages will grow significantly to manage the greater utilization of air space. The use of radar, LiDAR, and high-definition cameras will increase. At the same time, the attachment rates of cellular antennas will grow to cater to remote deployments and provide the private network capabilities of telecommunication companies, including Ericsson and Nokia, which aim to deploy to expand drone usage. Attach rates for Artificial Intelligence (AI) chipsets (GPU and ASIC) will grow to encompass 79% of all drones by 2030, a CAGR of 50%. Incorporating AI chipsets in sUAS allow performance-enhancing value adds such as Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM), machine vision, and semi-autonomous flight.

Airborne robotics bring appealing value propositions to nearly every industry, promising to transform current business models while unlocking new robotics use cases and applications. “Business, Government, and Militaries would do well to stay abreast of developments in this space. The FAA is issuing waivers for using sUAS BVLOS virtually every month. Disruption and innovation are hovering just over the horizon,” concludes Chowdhury. ABI Research