Global tech firm predicts wearable shipments to hit 2.79M by 2030

Canalys’ latest research reveals that the global wearable band market grew 3% year on year in Q3 2024 to 52.9 million units. Shipments of all three device categories – basic bands, basic watches and smartwatches – grew annually. The basic band segment returned to growth for the first time since Q3 2020, growing 7% compared to Q3 2023 with 10.4 million units shipped, driven by recent product launches from Xiaomi with the Mi Band 9 and Samsung with the Galaxy Fit3. The basic watch segment has started to plateau amid slowing demand in India, growing 3% year on year to 23.9 million units. Smartwatch shipments grew by a marginal 0.1% to 18.5 million, as Huawei’s and Samsung’s growth offset Apple’s decline.

Xiaomi achieved its highest wearable band shipment since Q4 2020, driven by strong demand for the Mi Band 9 and Redmi Watch 5 series. Xiaomi expanded these lineups to attract a broader customer base, including offering diverse options such as Pro, NFC and Active versions for bands, and Lite and Active versions for the Redmi Watch 5 series, featuring varied colors and materials. “These diversified offerings enable Xiaomi to target multiple price segments, helping to capture a larger market share,” said Jack Leathem, Research Analyst at Canalys. “However, the emphasis on entry-level products led to a 9% year-on-year decline in its ASP, hitting its lowest level since Q1 2021. Alongside this, Xiaomi’s efforts toward premiumization show progress, with the Watch S series achieving 70% year-on-year shipment growth. Balancing its reliance on affordable devices with its aspiration to build a premium brand remains a significant challenge.”

“Regional disparities define the wearable band market, with emerging markets showing strong growth potential while North America struggles,” said Cynthia Chen, Research Manager at Canalys. “Emerging markets offer vendors the chance to expand through cost-effective devices, as evidenced by the success of Xiaomi’s band series and Samsung’s Galaxy Fit3 in driving growth in Latin America and EMEA. Conversely, North America faces declining demand, hindered by reduced demand for Apple’s legacy models and Fitbit’s shrinking share, as mature markets lack compelling features to drive upgrades, leading to continued sluggish performance.”

“The adoption of AMOLED displays and advanced tracking features has revitalized the basic wearable band market,” added Leathem. “Entry-level products continue to expand, particularly among first-time buyers in emerging markets seeking affordable access to premium functionality. This democratization of high-end technology has elevated consumer expectations for wearables but has also intensified competition, reducing profit margins and pressuring vendors to innovate. Smartwatches, accounting for only 35% of shipments but 74% of market value in Q3 2024, remain critical for vendors’ premiumization ambitions and end-user ecosystem stickiness. To stay competitive, vendors must continue investing in software and hardware that help put them at the front of the industry, for example through machine learning-driven insights, dual-processor architecture, and advanced sleep tracking. Assuring consistent messaging and product portfolios focused on the premium segment will be critical for vendors to grow and establish their business further up the price bands.”

Canalys