Japan’s online video market to grow 7% CAGR by 2029

Japan’s online video industry is set to grow at a 7% compound annual growth rate over the next five years, according to a report on “The Future of Japan’s Video Industry” by Media Partners Asia (MPA).

This will account for 45% of total screen revenue by 2029, including free TV, pay-TV and theatrical, versus 35% in 2024.

The report also found that the number of theatrical releases has recovered to pre-Covid levels and local movies continue their dominance in Japan, contributing around 70% of gross box office.

Additionally, the report forecasts that total screen industry revenue in Japan will grow from US$31.8 billion in 2024 to US$34.1 billion by 2029.

Total online video industry revenue will reach $15.3 billion by 2029, with YouTube in the user-generated content and social video space emerging as the frontrunner. Netflix, Prime Video and U-Next lead in the subscription video-on-demand category, while TVer heads the advertising-based video-on-demand space.

The report also projects that Japan’s anime industry will remain vibrant. Anime content accounted for 36% of premium VOD category engagement in the first nine months of 2024.

MPA estimated that Japanese anime monetization across TV, streaming, and theatrical reached US$2.5 billion in Japan in 2023, which formed over 8% of the country’s total screen industry revenue.

Streaming is the top distribution platform for Japanese anime, contributing half of monetization. TV ranked second and contributed 27% of the total monetization amount.

The report also found that more than 20 studios accounted for 70% of top 200 titles on SVOD platforms for the first nine months of 2024.

Japanese anime continued to dominate with 117 titles, driven by franchises and long-running series from studios like TMS Entertainment, TBS and Aniplex. US and UK titles also contribute to SVOD demand, led by Warner Brothers Discovery, Paramount, Disney and Sony.

MPA executive director Vivek Couto said that Japan’s market for online VOD streaming will continue to improve, with fibre broadband accounting for 82% of household penetration. He projected that active connected TV penetration will expand to 51% by 2029 and also stated that Telco KDDI and NTT have emerged as important partners for SVOD and freemium OTT services.

“Netflix, Prime Video and local giant U-Next will lead SVOD monetization in the future while Disney+ will remain the fourth largest player; Max will emerge with a material share through its B2B partnership with U-Next and eventual D2C rollout,” said Couto. “Tver, owned by the major FTA broadcasters, will continue to grow its share of the premium AVOD category with strong connected TV monetization.” Deadline