Streaming platforms turn slow-burn shows into hits

Some shows are destined to be a smash hit. Heavy promotion, notable names or strong ties to already successful franchises make it easier for familiar titles to find and engage an audience ahead of an official release. But for every “Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” or “Bel-Air,” there’s a sleeper hit like “Abbott Elementary,” “The Bear” or “The Rehearsal.”

A “sleeper hit” can be defined as the kind of show that catches us by surprise — programs whose popularity grows over time and can ultimately outshine the preordained hits. And as streaming becomes a bigger part of the television landscape, sleeper hits can build an audience and rise to the top despite less-than-auspicious beginnings.

Geography Matters
New research from Roku — America’s No. 1 TV streaming platform in terms of hours streamed — found that certain states have been bellwethers for sleeper hits. To test the impact of these shows, Roku looked at seven sleeper hits, including “Our Flag Means Death,” “P-Valley” and “Severance,” and 10 expected smashes, such as “And Just Like That” and “Dexter: New Blood.” What the company found was surprising: Initial viewers of the titles that would go on to become successful were not residents of major entertainment hubs like New York or California, as one might expect.

In Massachusetts, for example, households were 67% more likely to search for a title during the week of its release than households throughout the rest of the country collectively. Roku users in Oregon were 57% more likely to search during that first week, while those in Illinois were 54% more likely. Curiously, states in the South were the least likely to discover a future hit. Users in Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi were 30-40% less likely to search for a sleeper hit during the week of its release.

As for the preordained smashes, those saw the biggest indicators of early success in Western states. Users in Washington households were 32% more likely to search for an “obvious” hit; Nevadans were 28% more likely; and Californians 24% more likely.

The takeaway? Though smash hits may garner a bigger audience (and more demand) at launch, streaming enables an audience to grow steadily over time. And, just because a show fails to gain immediate traction in large, metropolitan areas when it debuts doesn’t mean it’s destined to be a flop. Roku Search data shows that major cities like New York and Los Angeles do eventually catch up to those in Massachusetts, Oregon and Illinois; it just takes a few more weeks. Given their catalytic effect on an audience, streaming services can help sleeper shows to supersede those with a bigger share of the marketing spotlight.

“This proves the value in marketing a title long after it first debuts,” says Julia Mandaville, SVOD vertical specialist at Roku. “Amplifying midseason episodes as the story unfolds and going big at the finale can help capture widespread demand.”

For marketing executives in particular, Roku Search data is a clear signal to keep promoting a show regardless of how it performed initially.

“Our findings indicate it’s never too late to promote and build interest in a show,” says Julie McBride, Roku’s senior manager, ad research. “In fact, 78% of Roku users say if they miss the first couple episodes of a show, they don’t feel like it’s too late to catch up. Marketers can use these insights to engage users post-premiere that are likely interested in the title but have yet to watch.”

Breaking Down a Sleeper Hit’s Audience
If a show is centered around a certain profession, its marketing can be laser focused. The scale of streaming platforms helps connect users with stories that may mirror their own experiences at work.

For example, households with teachers and educators were 154% more likely to search for “Abbott Elementary” the week of its premiere. Similarly, people who work in real estate were 124% more likely to search for “Selling the OC”; surveyors opted for “1883” and psychologists preferred shows like “Severance.”

Marketers can target niche audiences by identifying who is over-indexing searches for a title early on or during the pre-release period, which makes promotion campaigns far more effective.

Ethnicity can also play a significant role. Native American households were 1,112% more likely to search for “Reservation Dogs” the week of its premiere; Black households were 319% more likely to search for “P-Valley,” with smaller but still notable patterns for “Abbott Elementary” and “Bel-Air.”

“Stories that showcase specific occupations or ethnicities are more likely to be in demand early on by viewers who directly identify with the content and characters,” explains Nicole Cooper, audience and streaming insights lead at Roku. “Marketers should consider those details when promoting titles to drive early adoption. Roku Search data can also tell us what content is popular today and what will be popular tomorrow. By looking at this type of data, we can identify where trends start, as well as how to utilize data to reach the niche audiences that drive a show’s success.”

The data make one thing clear: Hollywood’s tastemakers may not be who we think they are or traditionally have been. By interpreting content affinity and behavioral data, marketers can better anticipate who their show is appealing to and use that information to incrementally – and steadily – acquire viewers long after the premiere.

September’s Top 10 Searches on Roku
Given the dominance “Top Gun: Maverick” had at the box office this summer, it should come as no surprise that the blockbuster continues to rule searches in September. However, viewers were seemingly eager for the start of scary season as well, with three Halloween-themed films making it into the Top 10 searches. Don’t be too spooked if that number increases next month – pun intended.

1. “Top Gun: Maverick”
2. “Minions: The Rise of Gru”
3. “The Black Phone”
4. “Yellowstone”
5. “Jurrasic World Dominion”
6. “Fall”
7. “Hocus Pocus”
8. “Coraline”
9. “Halloween”
10. “Top Gun”

Variety