Will Musk’s increased influence impact India’s satcom spectrum issue?

The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th president of the US could help Elon Musk, chief executive of satellite communications operator Starlink, retain a favourable regulatory stance in the nascent satcom industry.

Analysts and policy experts suggest that Musk’s support for Trump’s campaign may translate into influence that could counter Indian business tycoon Mukesh Ambani’s efforts to persuade the Indian government to shift its approach from allocating spectrum to service providers to auctioning it.

“The Indian government’s approach to administratively allocate satellite spectrum already aligns with the globally established regulatory approach to satcom spectrum,” said Siddhant Cally, research analyst at consultancy and market research firm, Counterpoint. “Given that this already favours what Musk has been asking for, the push to retain administrative allocation for satellite spectrum will gain more strength, despite Ambani’s push to encourage an auction model for the satcom industry in India.”

Cally’s assessment is in line with other stakeholders. A senior industry official, working closely with telecom and space sector operators in India, said on conditions of anonymity, “Musk now has a close ally in the US president, who may urge the Indian government to retain its stance towards making satellite spectrum available to satcom service providers in the country. In the near term, this may clearly favour Musk if Trump weighs in on the issue, negating Sunil Bharti Mittal’s recent change of heart on the satcom spectrum issue.”

On 15 October, Mittal, chairperson of Bharti Enterprises—the holding company of telecom operator Bharti Airtel and satcom operator Airtel-OneWeb, changed his erstwhile stance to say, “Satellite companies who have ambitions to come into urban areas serving elite retail customers just need to take the telecom licenses like everybody, with the same conditions, and will have to buy the spectrum and pay license fees as telecom players.”

Mittal’s change of heart echoed Ambani-backed satcom firm Jio-SES’ long-term push to encourage spectrum auction, instead of administrative allocation from the Centre.

With Musk emerging as a primary backer of Trump’s presidential campaign in the past three months, industry stakeholders see him potentially play a key role in the incoming US government. A senior industry consultant who advises tech businesses in India said that Musk “may play an advisory role for technology in the Trump government, which means that he would now have considerable power to push for policies that favour his ventures worldwide.”

Musk and India
Most parties agree that the impact may take time to play out, depending on how important Musk considers the India market to be.

“It’s difficult to predict clearly if Trump’s election may favour Musk against India’s satcom operators. This will depend entirely on how big a part of Starlink’s plan India is. Musk, who may play a significant role in the upcoming government in the US, would have other areas to focus upon, rather than prioritizing India,” said Mathew Chacko, founding partner of law firm Spice Route Legal.

If Musk does push for a favourable stance within the India government, most stakeholders suggest that the Centre may not move away from the spectrum allocation model—since it may prioritize its bilateral ties with the US.

“There’s merit to this too, since satellite spectrum is largely different from conventional, commercial terrestrial mobile network spectrum. For the initial part, this should help retain administrative allocation, which will favour Musk in India thanks to Trump being the President,” Counterpoint‘s Cally said.

“From a global perspective, there could be more pressure to lay off technology—to not enact policies that are either strictly nationalistic, such as India’s telecom regulations. Alternatively, the US government may push for promoting tech hubs globally as an approach, in order to further its own benefits and bilateral ties with strategic geographies,” Spice Route’s Chacko added. Livemint