WLAN equipment shipments expands to 422.3 million in 2030

In 2023, the Wi-Fi market witnessed significant turbulence. On the one hand, the market was spurred by the arrival of Wi-Fi 7, further opening of the unlicensed 6 GHz spectrum band, the long-awaited certification of Standard Power 6 GHz in the USA, and an expanded addressable market for Passive Optical Network (PON) Wi-Fi Customer Premises Equipment (CPE) thanks to the continued rollout of Fiber to the Home (FTTH). On the other hand, a sluggish global economy, persistent inventory backlogs, and a low level of 6 GHz-compatible device penetration held back the market.

According to global technology intelligence firm ABI Research, the negative factors outweighed the positive ones in 2023, leading to a 9.1% contraction of residential and enterprise WLAN equipment annual shipments, down from 286.0 million in 2022 to 262.8 million in 2023. Despite this, 1Q 2024 saw the start of what is projected to be a gradual market rebound, with annual shipments in 2024 forecasted to surpass previous highs to reach 294.1 million. After that, the market will experience robust growth, resulting in WLAN equipment shipments expanding to 422.3 million in 2030.

“2024 has heralded major transformations in the WLAN equipment market,” says Andrew Spivey, Principal Analyst at ABI Research. “The sunsetting of Wi-Fi 6E has already begun, with shipments in the enterprise segment already contracting as the 6 GHz market migrates to tri-band Wi-Fi 7. At the same time, demand for dual-band Wi-Fi 7 – a variant of Wi-Fi 7 which lacks 6 GHz compatibility – is already shaping up to be considerably stronger than anybody was anticipating just 12 months ago.”

Examining the market at a regional level, Mainland China is the largest in terms of residential Wi-Fi CPE shipment volume, with a 26.2% share of the total in 2023. North America follows closely with a 23.8% share of 2023’s total annual shipments. Yet because the average selling price (ASP) per unit in Mainland China is almost half that of North America, the latter’s revenues are 64.6% higher than those of the former despite having fewer shipments. While Mainland China is the largest market today, throughout the rest of the decade, growth will slow markedly as the nation grapples with market saturation, a regulatory preference for 5G over WLAN, a lack of unlicensed 6 GHz access, and a declining population. In contrast, North America will enjoy relatively faster growth, underpinned by favorable government regulation toward WLAN, including full unlicensed 6 GHz access and early authorization of standard power 6 GHz, alongside an expanding population and new opportunities unlocked by expanded FTTH networks.

“Going forward, the main drivers of growth in the WLAN equipment market will be the emerging economies. Dynamics in Asia best illustrate this. Whereas the projected 2024 to 2030 CAGRs for Mainland China are 3% and the Asian Tigers plus Japan 3.2%, the rest of the Asia-Pacific will enjoy a projected growth rate of 15.9%,” Spivey concludes. ABI Research