YouTube TV is forecast to be the largest Pay-TV distributor In 2026

YouTube TV, a virtual multichannel video programming distributor (vMPVD) is projected to be the top pay-TV distributor by the end of 2026. MoffettNathanson, a Wall Street research company covering media and communications, made that forecast last month. The forecast is based upon the expectations that YouTube will continue to increase their subscriber counts, while cord-cutting continues to impact the more traditional MVPD’s.

YouTube TV was launched in 2017 and has experienced steady subscriber growth. At the end of 2023, YouTube TV reported more than 8 million subscribers (including free promotions), making it the fourth largest pay-TV distributor behind Charter, ComcastCMCSA -0.5% and DirecTV. Charter and Comcast each have about 14.1 million pay-TV subscribers the largest MVPD services. Satellite TV provider, DirecTV is the third largest with about 11.3 million subscribers. In the upcoming years, MoffettNathanson forecasts YouTube TV to increase their subscriber base by 1.5 million each year, reaching 12.4 million toward the end of 2026.

Conversely, Charter, Comcast and DirecTV will continue to be impacted by subscriber defections. For example, in 2023 one million subscribers dropped Charter and two million cancelled their Comcast subscription. In total, 2023 was a record year as 3.8 million cancelled their cable subscribers (Comcast, Charter, Altice USA, Dish, Verizon, etc.). In addition, last year, DirecTV lost an estimated 1.8 million subscribers. By comparison, since mid-2022, YouTube TV has increased their subscriber counts by about three million. Google said YouTube TV had been their fastest growing product in 2023. Overall, the household penetration of pay-TV subscribers is now below 55% (including vMVPD’s), the lowest since 1989. MoffettNathanson estimates 26.5% of MVPD cancellations eventually signed on with a vMPVD service. Forbes